output
20112025
most citedUsing Machine Learning to Calibrate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System

67 citations

9 papers

physics.ao-ph2025★ 2 cited

HRRRCast: a data-driven emulator for regional weather forecasting at convection allowing scales

Daniel Abdi, Isidora Jankov, Paul Madden +5

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is a convection-allowing model used in operational weather forecasting across the contiguous United States (CONUS). To provide a comp…

physics.ao-ph2024★ 30 cited

Changes in mesoscale convective system precipitation structures in response to a warming climate

Wenjun Cui, Thomas Galarneau, Kimberly Hoogewind

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will c…

cs.LG2023★ 26 cited

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

John S. Schreck, David John Gagne, Charlie Becker +13

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates an…

cs.LG2022★ 34 cited

A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology, Part II: Neural Networks and Deep Learning

Randy J. Chase, David R. Harrison, Gary Lackmann +1

Over the past decade the use of machine learning in meteorology has grown rapidly. Specifically neural networks and deep learning have been used at an unprecedented rate. In order…

physics.ao-ph2022★ 15 cited

Supercell low-level mesocyclones: Origins of inflow and vorticity

Brice Coffer, Matthew Parker, John Peters +1

The development of low-level mesocyclones in supercell thunderstorms has often been explained via the development of storm-generated streamwise vorticity along a baroclinic gradien…

physics.ao-ph2022★ 25 cited

A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology, Part I: Traditional Machine Learning

Randy J. Chase, David R. Harrison, Amanda Burke +2

Recently, the use of machine learning in meteorology has increased greatly. While many machine learning methods are not new, university classes on machine learning are largely unav…

physics.ao-ph2020★ 67 cited

Using Machine Learning to Calibrate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System

Montgomery Flora, Corey K. Potvin, Patrick S. Skinner +2

A primary goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project is to provide rapidly updating probabilistic guidance to human forecaste…

physics.ao-ph2018

Possible Implications of Self-Similarity for Tornadogenesis and Maintenance

Pavel Bělík, Brittany Dahl, Douglas Dokken +3

Self-similarity in tornadic and some non-tornadic supercell flows is studied and power laws relating various quantities in such flows are demonstrated. Magnitudes of the exponents…

physics.geo-ph2011★ 13 cited

Determining Key Model Parameters of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo(1997) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Humberto C. Godinez, Jon M. Reisner, Alexandre O. Fierro +2

In this work we determine key model parameters for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The approach is to utilize the EnKF as a…