output
20122025
most citedUsing Machine Learning to Calibrate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System

67 citations

11 papers

physics.ao-ph2025★ 2 cited

HRRRCast: a data-driven emulator for regional weather forecasting at convection allowing scales

Daniel Abdi, Isidora Jankov, Paul Madden +5

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is a convection-allowing model used in operational weather forecasting across the contiguous United States (CONUS). To provide a comp…

physics.ao-ph2025

Supercell environments using GridRad-Severe and the HRRR: Addressing discrepancies between prior tornado datasets

Brice Coffer, Matthew Parker, Michael Coniglio +1

Storm-relative helicity (SRH) is an important ingredient in supercell development, as well as mesocyclone intensity, and is linked to tornadogenesis and tornado potential. Derived…

physics.ao-ph2024★ 30 cited

Changes in mesoscale convective system precipitation structures in response to a warming climate

Wenjun Cui, Thomas Galarneau, Kimberly Hoogewind

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will c…

cs.LG2023★ 2 cited

Machine Learning Estimation of Maximum Vertical Velocity from Radar

Randy J. Chase, Amy McGovern, Cameron Homeyer +2

The quantification of storm updrafts remains unavailable for operational forecasting despite their inherent importance to convection and its associated severe weather hazards. Updr…

cs.LG2023★ 26 cited

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

John S. Schreck, David John Gagne, Charlie Becker +13

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates an…

math.OC2023

On the dual advantage of placing observations through forward sensitivity analysis

Shady E Ahmed, Omer San, Sivaramakrishnan Lakshmivarahan +1

The four-dimensional variational data assimilation methodology for assimilating noisy observations into a deterministic model has been the workhorse of forecasting centers for over…