output
20222025
most citedHow is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?

1 citations

researchers with a paper here

Counting papers with at most 25 authors, so collaboration author lists do not stand in for the people here.

collaborating institutions

4 papers

cs.SI2025★ 1 cited

Democratic Resilience and Sociotechnical Shocks

M. Amin Rahimian, Michael P. Colaresi

We focus on the potential fragility of democratic elections given modern information-communication technologies (ICT) in the Web 2.0 era. Our work provides an explanation for the c…

stat.ME2024

Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict

David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, Håvard Hegre

Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictio…

stat.AP2024

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37

This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…

stat.AP2022★ 1 cited

How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?

Emily G. Simmonds, Kwaku Peprah Adjei, Christoffer Wold Andersen +40

How do we know how much we know? Quantifying uncertainty associated with our modelling work is the only way we can answer how much we know about any phenomenon. With quantitative s…