8 papers
Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Aditya Basarkar, Emmett B. Kendall, David Randahl +2
Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a cou…
pintervals: an R package for model-agnostic prediction intervals
David Randahl, Anders Hjort, Jonathan P. Williams
The \pkg{pintervals} package aims to provide a unified framework for constructing prediction intervals and calibrating predictions in a model-agnostic setting using set-aside calib…
Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models
David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
In this contribution to the VIEWS 2023 prediction challenge, we propose using an observed Markov model for making predictions of densities of fatalities from armed conflicts. The o…
This is not normal! (Re-) Evaluating the lower guidelines for regression analysis
David Randahl
The commonly cited rule of thumb for regression analysis, which suggests that a sample size of is sufficient to ensure valid inferences, is frequently referenced but ra…
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, Håvard Hegre
Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictio…
When Sensitivity Bias Varies Across Subgroups: The Impact of Non-uniform Polarity in List Experiments
Sophia Hatz, David Randahl
Survey researchers face the problem of sensitivity bias: since people are reluctant to reveal socially undesirable or otherwise risky traits, aggregate estimates of these traits wi…
The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a structured expert elicitation
Paola Vesco, David Randahl, Håvard Hegre +2
Event datasets including those provided by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) are based on reports from the media and international organizations, and are likely to suffer from r…
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…