184 citations
Counting papers with at most 25 authors, so collaboration author lists do not stand in for the people here.
- V. Zheligovsky20 · h 13
- G. Molchan4 profiles19 · h 21
- D. Sornette3 profiles17 · h 91
- V. Pisarenko16 · h 24
- O. Podvigina14 · h 13
- R. Novikov2 profiles8 · h 25
- R. Chertovskih2 profiles7 · h 8
- U. Frisch6 · h 57
- P. Grinevich2 profiles5 · h 22
- Vladimir Keilis-Borok5 · h 8
- A. Mazel4 · h 13
- J. Lebowitz2 profiles4 · h 90
- Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueFR35 papers
- Russian Academy of SciencesRU26 papers
- Observatoire de la Côte d’AzurFR20 papers
- École PolytechniqueFR13 papers
- Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRU12 papers
- University of California, Los AngelesUS12 papers
- Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'École polytechniqueFR11 papers
- Landau Institute for Theoretical PhysicsRU10 papers
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)IT10 papers
- Universidade do PortoPT9 papers
- Institut de Physique de NiceFR8 papers
- ETH ZurichCH7 papers
22 papers · 1 filter
On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years
J-L. Le Mouël, D. Gibert, V. Courtillot +11
The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity is the result of a complex interaction between i…
Productivity within the ETAS seismicity model
George Molchan, Elisa Varini, Antonella Peresan
The productivity of a magnitude event can be characterized in term of triggered events of magnitude above : it is the number of direct "descendants" and the number o…
Gusev's stochastic model for the seismic source: high-frequency behavior in the far zone
G. M. Molchan
This paper discusses local features in the source function that generate in the far zone simultaneously (a) a quadratic decay of the source spectrum and (b) the loss of radiation d…
A note on the ranking of earthquake forecasts
G. Molchan
The ranking problem of earthquake forecasts is considered. We formulate simple statistical requirements to forecasting quality measure R and analyze some R-ranking methods on this…
Stochastic earthquake source model: the omega-square hypothesis and the directivity effect
G. Molchan
Recently A. Gusev suggested and numerically investigated the doubly stochastic earthquake source model. The model is supposed to demonstrate the following features in the far-field…
A new probabilistic shift away from seismic hazard reality in Italy?
Anastasia Nekrasova, Antonella Peresan, Volodya Kossobokov +1
Objective testing is a key issue in the process of revision and improvement of seismic hazard assessments. Therefore we continue the rigorous comparative analysis of past and newly…
Earthquake forecasting: Statistics and Information
V. Gertsik, M. Kelbert, A. Krichevets
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates…
Forecasting ability of a multi-renewal seismicity model for Italy
G. Molchan, L. Romashkova
The inter-event time, IET, is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently a sp…
On the Testing of Seismicity Models
George Molchan
Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity mode…
Hot-Cold Spots in Italian Macroseismic Data
G. Molchan, T. Kronrod, G. F. Panza
The site effect is usually associated with local geological conditions, which increase or decrease the level of shaking compared with standard attenuation relations. We made an att…
Gambling scores in earthquake prediction analysis
G. Molchan, L. Romashkova
The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significa…
Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007)
V. F. Pisarenko, D. Sornette, M. V. Rodkin
We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the tail distribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al. [2009] and apply it to the earthquake…
Mathematical principles of predicting the probabilities of large earthquakes
V. M. Ghertzik
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities o…
Characterization of the tail of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes by combining the GEV and GPD descriptions of Extreme Value Theory
V. F. Pisarenko, A. Sornette, D. Sornette +1
We present a generic and powerful approach to study the statistics of extreme phenomena (meteorology, finance, biology...) that we apply to the statistical estimation of the tail o…
Earthquake Prediction: Probabilistic Aspect
G. Molchan, V. Keilis-Borok
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized er…
New Approach to the Characterization of Mmax and of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes
V. F. Pisarenko, A. Sornette, D. Sornette +1
We develop a new method for the statistical esitmation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes recorded in the Worldwide Harvard catalog of seismic moments converted to…
Seismic Interevent Time: A Spatial Scaling and Multifractality
G. Molchan, T. Kronrod
The optimal scaling problem for the time t(LxL) between two successive events in a seismogenic cell of size L is considered. The quantity t(LxL) is defined for a random cell of a g…
On the Spatial Scaling of Seismicity Rate
G. Molchan, T. Kronrod
Scaling analysis of seismicity in the space-time-magnitude domain very often starts from the relation N(m,L)=a(L)*10**(-bm)*L**c for the rate of seismic events of magnitude M>m in…
On the Frequency-magnitude Law for Fractal Seismicity
G. Molchan, T. Kronrod
Scaling analysis of seismicity in the space-time-magnitude domain very often starts from the relation N(m,L)=a(L)*10**(-bm)*L**c for the rate of seismic events of magnitude M>m in…
Interevent time distribution in seismicity: a theoretical approach
G. Molchan
This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of a unifi…
Reverse Detection of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors
V. Keilis-Borok, P. Shebalin, A. Gabrielov +1
We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the concept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach is named "Reverse Detec…
Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies
D. Sornette, A. Helmstetter, J. V. Andersen +3
In a previous work [Helmstetter, 2003], we have proposed a simple physical model to explain the accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides, based on a slider…