Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies
arXiv:physics/0305067 · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2004.02.065
Abstract
In a previous work [Helmstetter, 2003], we have proposed a simple physical model to explain the accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides, based on a slider-block model with a state and velocity dependent friction law. This model predicts two regimes of sliding, stable and unstable leading to a critical finite-time singularity. This model was calibrated quantitatively to the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont (Italian Alps) and La Clapière (French Alps), showing that the former (resp. later) landslide is in the unstable (resp. stable) sliding regime. Here, we test the predictive skills of the state-and-velocity-dependent model on these two landslides, using a variety of techniques. For the Vaiont landslide, our model provides good predictions of the critical time of failure up to 20 days before the collapse. Tests are also presented on the predictability of the time of the change of regime for la Clapière landslide.
30 pages with 12 eps figures
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- Self-similar factor approximants for evolution equations and boundary-value problems
- Interplay Between Approximation Theory and Renormalization Group
- A computational toy model for shallow landslides: Molecular Dynamics approach
- A rain induced landslide 3D model based on molecular dynamics with fractal and fractional water diffusion
- Weather instabilities as a warning sign for a nearby climatic tipping point?