Mathematical principles of predicting the probabilities of large earthquakes

Abstract

A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor characterizing the seismicity prehistory are known. We introduce tools for assessing prediction efficiency, including a separate determination of efficiency for "time prediction" and "location prediction": a generalized correlation coefficient and the density of information gain. We suggest a technique for testing the predictor to decide whether the hypothesis of no prediction can be rejected.

arXiv comment25 pages. Accepted in Physics of the Earth, 2006 (in Russian). English translation: Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth; typos corrected, some changes in the text