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binary classification 1calibration 1degrees of freedom 1distribution-free guarantees 1expected calibration error 1isotonic regression 1

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stat.ME2025

Can a calibration metric be both testable and actionable?

Raphael Rossellini, Jake A. Soloff, Rina Foygel Barber +2

Forecast probabilities often serve as critical inputs for binary decision making. In such settings, calibration$\unicode{x2014}$ensuring forecasted probabilities match empirical fr…