From the 1 of 3 linked papers with an AI index.
3 papers
An analysis of binary isotonic regression: degrees of freedom and implications for calibration
Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren +1
The paper provides a sharp finite‑sample bound on the worst‑case degrees of freedom of binary isotonic regression and uses this result to derive a distribution‑free guarantee on th…
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
Anna Asch, Raphael Rossellini, Pedram Hassanzadeh +1
Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how w…
Can a calibration metric be both testable and actionable?
Raphael Rossellini, Jake A. Soloff, Rina Foygel Barber +2
Forecast probabilities often serve as critical inputs for binary decision making. In such settings, calibration$\unicode{x2014}$ensuring forecasted probabilities match empirical fr…