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binary classification 1calibration 1degrees of freedom 1distribution-free guarantees 1expected calibration error 1isotonic regression 1

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20242026
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cs.LG2024

Beyond Ensemble Averages: Leveraging Climate Model Ensembles for Subseasonal Forecasting

Elena Orlova, Haokun Liu, Raphael Rossellini +2

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This st…