196 citations · 544 across the 24 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers · 1 filter
On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Pasquale Cirillo
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-…
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
Pasquale Cirillo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-…
What You See and What You Don't See: The Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample…
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the mis…