196 citations · 544 across the 24 of their papers we have counts for
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q-fin.RM2012
How We Tend To Overestimate Powerlaw Tail Exponents
Nassim N. Taleb
In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from uncertainty concerning the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardle…
q-fin.RM2012★ 1 cited
The Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error As Branching Counterfactuals
Nassim N. Taleb
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about t…
q-fin.RM2012
Mathematical Definition, Mapping, and Detection of (Anti)Fragility
Nassim N. Taleb, Raphael Douady
We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or pos…