Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases

Abstract

Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially existential risk for humanity. Such a macro property should invite the use of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) rather than naive interpolations and expected averages for risk management purposes. An implication is that potential tail risk overrides conclusions on decisions derived from compartmental epidemiological models and similar approaches.

References in corpus (1)

• Power-law distributions in empirical data

Cited by in corpus (6)

• Tail of the distribution of fatalities in epidemics
• COVID-19 in a social reinsurance framework: Forewarned is forearmed
• Finite-size scaling versus dual random variables and shadow moments in the size distribution of epidemics
• Impact of a small number of large bubbles on Covid-19 transmission within universities
• Scientific comment on "Tail risk of contagious diseases"
• Policy-Aware Mobility Model Explains the Growth of COVID-19 in Cities