196 citations · 544 across the 24 of their papers we have counts for
30 papers
Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetic Distance
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Pierre Zalloua, Khaled Elbassioni +2
We discuss the inadequacy of covariances/correlations and other measures in L2 as relative distance metrics under some conditions. We propose a computationally simple heuristic to…
The Probability Conflation: A Reply
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Ron Richman, Marcos Carreira +1
We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment…
Working With Convex Responses: Antifragility From Finance to Oncology
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Jeffrey West
We extend techniques and learnings about the stochastic properties of nonlinear responses from finance to medicine, particularly oncology where it can inform dosing and interventio…
Unmasking the mask studies: why the effectiveness of surgical masks in preventing respiratory infections has been underestimated
Pratyush K. Kollepara, Alexander F. Siegenfeld, Nassim Nicholas Taleb +1
Face masks have been widely used as a protective measure against COVID-19. However, pre-pandemic empirical studies have produced mixed statistical results on the effectiveness of m…
On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Pasquale Cirillo
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-…
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
Pasquale Cirillo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-…