17 citations · 199 across the 42 of their papers we have counts for
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physics.ao-ph2009★ 3 cited
Improving the expected accuracy of forecasts of future climate using a simple bias-variance tradeoff
Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins
We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method c…
physics.ao-ph2009★ 7 cited
CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty
Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins
The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble spread most likely underestimates the real model uncertainty in future climate predictions because of the similarity, and shared defects, of the mode…
physics.ao-ph2009★ 7 cited
A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior
Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands, Myles Allen
We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be arg…