17 citations · 150 across the 31 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers · 1 filter
Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a comparison of four spread-regression models
Stephen Jewson
Spread regression is an extension of linear regression that allows for the inclusion of a predictor that contains information about the variance. It can be used to take the informa…
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature: measuring the utility of the ensemble spread
Stephen Jewson
The spread of ensemble weather forecasts contains information about the spread of possible future weather scenarios. But how much information does it contain, and how useful is tha…
Probabilistic forecasting of temperature: comments on the Bayesian Model Averaging approach
Stephen Jewson
A specific implementation of Bayesian model averaging has recently been suggested as a method for the calibration of ensemble temperature forecasts. We point out the similarities b…
Making use of the information in ensemble weather forecasts: comparing the end to end and full statistical modelling approaches
Stephen Jewson
We discuss how ensemble weather forecasts can be used, and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of two particular methods.
Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a summary of our recent research results
Stephen Jewson
We summarise the main results from a number of our recent articles on the subject of probabilistic temperature forecasting.
Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty
Stephen Jewson, Maarten Ambaum, Christine Ziehmann
The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previou…