17 citations · 150 across the 31 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers · 1 filter
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: non-normal innovations
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurri…
Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines
Stephen Jewson, Christopher Casey, Jeremy Penzer
Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, sho…
Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes
Shree Khare, Stephen Jewson
We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, b…
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling cyclone lysis
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
We describe results from the fifth stage of a project to build a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks. The previous stages considered genesis and the shape of tracks. We no…
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone genesis: a non-parametric model for the annual distribution
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of…
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second…