Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a summary of our recent research results

Abstract

We summarise the main results from a number of our recent articles on the subject of probabilistic temperature forecasting.

References in corpus (7)

• Moment based methods for ensemble assessment and calibration
• The problem with the Brier score
• Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts
• Do probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts need to allow for non-normality?
• Improving probabilistic weather forecasts using seasonally varying calibration parameters
• Do medium range ensemble forecasts give useful predictions of temporal correlations?
• Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

Cited by in corpus (4)

• Probabilistic forecasts of temperature: measuring the utility of the ensemble spread
• Probabilistic forecasting of temperature: comments on the Bayesian Model Averaging approach
• Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a comparison of four spread-regression models
• Making use of the information in ensemble weather forecasts: comparing the end to end and full statistical modelling approaches