Do medium range ensemble forecasts give useful predictions of temporal correlations?

Abstract

Medium range ensemble forecasts are typically used to derive predictions of the conditional marginal distributions of future events on individual days. We assess whether they can also be used to predict the conditional correlations between different days.

References in corpus (3)

• Moment based methods for ensemble assessment and calibration
• Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts
• Do probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts need to allow for non-normality?

Cited by in corpus (2)

• Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a summary of our recent research results
• Making use of the information in ensemble weather forecasts: comparing the end to end and full statistical modelling approaches