Improving probabilistic weather forecasts using seasonally varying calibration parameters

Abstract

We show that probabilistic weather forecasts of site specific temperatures can be dramatically improved by using seasonally varying rather than constant calibration parameters.

References in corpus (5)

• Moment based methods for ensemble assessment and calibration
• Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts
• Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts
• Do probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts need to allow for non-normality?
• A note on the use of the word 'likelihood' in statistics and meteorology

Cited by in corpus (2)

• Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a summary of our recent research results
• Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a comparison of four spread-regression models