4 papers
Robust Model Selection for Discovery of Latent Mechanistic Processes
Jiawei Li, Nguyen Nguyen, Meng Lai +2
When learning interpretable latent structures using model-based approaches, even small deviations from modeling assumptions can lead to inferential results that are not mechanistic…
Design and Implementation of a 25-Year Pseudo-Prospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in China (AoyuX)
Jiawei Li, Qingyuan Zhang, Didier Sornette
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range ob…
Estimating Magnitude Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: A Comparative Study of Catalog-based Methods
Xinyi Wang, Jiawei Li, Ao Feng +1
Without rigorous attention to the completeness of earthquake catalogs, claims of new discoveries or forecasting skills cannot be deemed credible. Therefore, estimating the complete…
New horizon in the statistical physics of earthquakes: Dragon-king theory and dragon-king earthquakes
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette, Zhongliang Wu +1
A systematic quantitative investigation into whether the mechanisms of large earthquakes are unique could significantly deepen our understanding of fault rupture and seismicity pat…