7 citations · 14 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers · 1 filter
Design and Implementation of a 25-Yr Pseudoprospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in China (AoyuX)
Jiawei Li, Qingyuan Zhang, Didier Sornette
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated using log-likelihood (LL) scores for the full distribution of earthquake counts. However, fat tails and out-…
Unifying the Gutenberg-Richter Law with Probabilistic Catalog Completeness
Jiawei Li, Xinyi Wang, Didier Sornette
We propose a probabilistic approach to modeling catalog incompleteness through four candidate augmented Gutenberg-Richter (GR) laws, which incorporates incompleteness into the freq…
Haicheng and Tangshan Earthquakes as potential Dragon-Kings
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette
The dragon-king earthquake hypothesis proposes that some very large to great earthquakes are not merely the extreme end of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter distribution (F…
Estimating Magnitude Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: A Comparative Study of Catalog-based Methods
Xinyi Wang, Jiawei Li, Ao Feng +1
Without rigorous attention to the completeness of earthquake catalogs, claims of new discoveries or forecasting skills cannot be deemed credible. Therefore, estimating the complete…
New horizon in the statistical physics of earthquakes: Dragon-king theory and dragon-king earthquakes
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette, Zhongliang Wu +1
A systematic quantitative investigation into whether the mechanisms of large earthquakes are unique could significantly deepen our understanding of fault rupture and seismicity pat…
Revisiting Seismicity Criticality: A New Framework for Bias Correction of Statistical Seismology Model Calibrations
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette, Zhongliang Wu +2
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. A…