Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n_* scales as N^{2/3} with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size <n> scales as N^{1/3}. Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t_* ~ N^{1/3} and <t> ~ ln N, respectively.

arXiv comment4 pages, 5 figures

References in corpus (4)

• Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks
• The spread of epidemic disease on networks
• Geography in a Scale-Free Network Model
• Exchange Driven Growth

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