Epidemics with containment measures

Abstract

We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda >0$. The containment measures are modeled by considering a time-dependent modulation of the bare infectivity $\lambda$ leading to effective infectivity that decays in time for each infected individual, mimicking for instance the combined effect of the asymptomatic onset of the disease, testing policies and quarantine. We consider a wide range of temporal kernels for effective infectivity and we investigate the effect of the considered containment measures. We find that not all kernels are able to push the epidemic dynamics below the epidemic threshold, with some containment measures only able to reduce the rate of the exponential growth of newly infected individuals. We also propose a pandemic model caused by a growing number of separated foci.

arXiv comment(15 pages, 6 figures)

References in corpus (16)

• Statistical physics of social dynamics
• Epidemic processes in complex networks
• Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China
• Reaction-diffusion processes and metapopulation models in heterogeneous networks
• High-resolution measurements of face-to-face contact patterns in a primary school
• Theory of Rumour Spreading in Complex Social Networks
• Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
• Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold
• Efficient network immunization under limited knowledge
• Solution of an infection model near threshold
• Bi-stability of SUDR+K model of epidemics and test kits applied to COVID-19
• Self-isolation or borders closing: what prevents epidemic spreading better?
• Skepticism and rumor spreading: the role of spatial correlations
• Scaling Behavior of Threshold Epidemics
• Nonlinear q-voter model with deadlocks on the Watts-Strogatz graph
• Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

Cited by in corpus (10)

• Epidemic plateau in critical SIR dynamics with non-trivial initial conditions
• Percolation and the pandemic
• Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign
• Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
• A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
• Epidemic spreading in an expanded parameter space: the supercritical scaling laws and subcritical metastable phases
• Epidemic Forecast Follies
• Critical time-dependent branching process modelling epidemic spreading with containment measures
• Abrupt transition of the efficient vaccination strategy in a population with heterogeneous fatality rates
• Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control: the discontinuous case