Outbreak size distributions in epidemics with multiple stages

Abstract

Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical multistage Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) infection process. In the infinite population limit, we compute the outbreak size distributions and show that asymptotic results apply to more general multiple-type critical branching processes. Finally using heuristic arguments and simulations we establish scaling laws for a multistage SIR model in a finite population.

7 pages, 2 figures; added references, final version

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Cited by in corpus (6)

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• Impurity probe of topological superfluid in one-dimensional spin-orbit coupled atomic Fermi gases
• Outbreak statistics and scaling laws for externally driven epidemics
• Discontinuous Transition of a Multistage Independent Cascade Model on Networks
• The structure of infectious disease outbreaks across the animal-human interface
• Epidemic Forecast Follies