An Evolving Cosmic Shoreline and Sandbar Bounding the Rocky Airless Valley
arXiv:2608.23912 · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae9743
Abstract
Recent JWST observations challenge the traditional 'cosmic shoreline' from both sides, revealing thick volatile atmospheres on the hottest close-in 'lava worlds,' where irradiation should drive the most extreme escape, and bare rocky surfaces on cooler terrestrial planets around M dwarfs, where atmospheres would be expected to survive. Using a coupled atmosphere-interior evolution model, we show that atmosphere retention is governed not by a single escape boundary but by two: a hot, outgassing-regulated 'cosmic sandbar' and a cooler, escape-regulated 'cosmic shoreline,' separated by an 'airless valley' that may mark a graveyard of stripped sub-Neptune cores. The sandbar arises because long-lived magma oceans, sustained further by tidal heating from secular eccentricity excitation in multi-planet systems, keep most volatiles dissolved and expose only a small atmospheric reservoir to escape, whereas cooler planets solidify, sequestering volatiles in the deep solid mantle while overexposing the rest to loss. This two-regime structure recasts the single cosmic shoreline as two boundaries set by distinct physics: outgassing and escape. We provide time-evolving fits for both boundaries across G, K, and M stellar types as a function of volatile inventory, planetary mass, age, and tidal heating. Lava worlds with thick atmospheres are unlikely around stars cooler than K-type unless sustained by extreme tidal and/or other interior heating. This framework links atmosphere survival from USP lava worlds to habitable zone planets, informing target selection and interpretation for TRAPPIST-1 and JWST DDT characterization.
arXiv commentAccepted for publication in ApJL (The Astrophysical Journal Letters), 2026. 26 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables
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