Semi-supervised standardized detection of extrasolar planets
arXiv:2207.03740 · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202142486
Abstract
The detection of small exoplanets with the radial velocity (RV) technique is limited by various poorly known noise sources of instrumental and stellar origin. As a consequence, current detection techniques often fail to provide reliable estimates of the significance levels of detection tests (p-values). We designed an RV detection procedure that provides reliable p-value estimates while accounting for the various noise sources. The method can incorporate ancillary information about the noise (e.g., stellar activity indicators) and specific data- or context-driven data (e.g., instrumental measurements, simulations of stellar variability) . The detection part of the procedure uses a detection test that is applied to a standardized periodogram. Standardization allows an autocalibration of the noise sources with partially unknown statistics. The estimation of the p-value of the test output is based on dedicated Monte Carlo simulations that allow handling unknown parameters. The procedure is versatile in the sense that the specific pair (periodogram and test) is chosen by the user. We demonstrate by extensive numerical experiments on synthetic and real RV data from the Sun and aCenB that the proposed method reliably allows estimating the p-values. The method also provides a way to evaluate the dependence of the estimated p-values that are attributed to a reported detection on modeling errors. It is a critical point for RV planet detection at low signal-to-noise ratio to evaluate this dependence. The python algorithms are available on GitHub. Accurate estimation of p-values when unknown parameters are involved is an important but only recently addressed question in the field of RV detection. Although this work presents a method to do this, the statistical literature discussed in this paper may trigger the development of other strategies.
arXiv comment19 pages, 11 figures, accepted to A&A
References in corpus (60)
- The generalised Lomb-Scargle periodogram. A new formalism for the floating-mean and Keplerian periodograms
- No planet for HD 166435
- Higher criticism for detecting sparse heterogeneous mixtures
- A Gaussian process framework for modelling stellar activity signals in radial velocity data
- Assessing statistical significance of periodogram peaks
- The Lick Planet Search: Detectability and Mass Thresholds
- State of the Field: Extreme Precision Radial Velocities
- Juliet: a versatile modelling tool for transiting and non-transiting exoplanetary systems
- A simple method to estimate radial velocity variations due to stellar activity using photometry
- Planetary detection limits taking into account stellar noise. I. Observational strategies to reduce stellar oscillation and granulation effects
- Detectability of Extrasolar Planets in Radial Velocity Surveys
- Measuring precise radial velocities on individual spectral lines. I. Validation of the method and application to mitigate stellar activity
- Anomalously Weak Solar Convection
- Bayesian search for low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. Estimates for occurrence rate based on global detectability statistics
- Ghost in the time series: no planet for Alpha Cen B
- On the Mass of CoRoT-7b
- EXPRES: A Next Generation RV Spectrograph in the Search for Earth-like Worlds
- Three years of Sun-as-a-star radial-velocity observations on the approach to solar minimum
- Radial Velocity Detection of Earth-mass Planets in the Presence of Activity Noise: The Case of Alpha Centauri Bb
- The impact of red noise in radial velocity planet searches: Only three planets orbiting GJ581?
- Three Years of HARPS-N High-Resolution Spectroscopy and Precise Radial Velocity Data for the Sun
- The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XXXV. The interesting case of HD41248: stellar activity, no planets?
- Two planets around Kapteyn's star : a cold and a temperate super-Earth orbiting the nearest halo red-dwarf
- pyaneti II: A multidimensional Gaussian process approach to analysing spectroscopic time-series
- Separating planetary reflex Doppler shifts from stellar variability in the wavelength domain
- Radial Velocity Data Analysis with Compressed Sensing Techniques
- YARARA: Significant improvement of RV precision through post-processing of spectral time-series
- The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs: Radial-velocity variations of active stars in visual-channel spectra
- Synthesising, using, and correcting for telluric features in high-resolution astronomical spectra
- Orbital structure of the GJ876 extrasolar planetary system, based on the latest Keck and HARPS radial velocity data
- Insights on the Spectral Signatures of Stellar Activity and Planets from PCA
- PlanetPack: a radial-velocity time-series analysis tool facilitating exoplanets detection, characterization, and dynamical simulations
- Enhanced models for stellar Doppler noise reveal hints of a 13-year activity cycle of 55 Cancri
- Long-lived, long-period radial velocity variations in Aldebaran: A planetary companion and stellar activity
- The CORALIE survey for southern extra-solar planets. X. A Hot Jupiter orbiting HD73256
- Impact of micro-telluric lines on precise radial velocities and its correction
- Radial velocities from the N2K Project: 6 new cold gas giant planets orbiting HD 55696, HD 98736, HD 148164, HD 203473, and HD 211810
- Unexpectedly strong effect of supergranulation on the detectability of Earth twins orbiting Sun-like stars with radial velocities
- Efficient modeling of correlated noise I. Statistical significance of periodogram peaks
- Predicting radial-velocity jitter induced by stellar oscillations based on Kepler data
- Searching for periods in X-ray observations using Kuiper's test. Application to the ROSAT PSPC archive
- A new method of correcting radial velocity time series for inhomogeneous convection
- AD Leonis: Radial velocity signal of stellar rotation or spin-orbit resonance?
- Precise radial velocities of giant stars. XII. Evidence against the proposed planet Aldebaran b
- Testing whether a signal is strictly periodic. Application to disentangling planets and stellar activity in radial velocities
- The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XLV. Two Neptune mass planets orbiting HD 13808: a study of stellar activity modelling's impact on planet detection
- A comparative study of four significance measures for periodicity detection in astronomical surveys
- A HARPS-N mass for the elusive Kepler-37d: a case study in disentangling stellar activity and planetary signals
- The curious case of HD41248. A pair of static signals buried behind red-noise
- A Gaussian Process Regression Reveals No Evidence for Planets Orbiting Kapteyn's Star
- An Apodized Kepler Periodogram for Separating Planetary and Stellar Activity Signals
- Radial-velocity variations due to meridional flows in the Sun and solar-type stars: impact on exoplanet detectability
- 3D magneto-hydrodynamical simulations of stellar convective noise for improved exoplanet detection. I. Case of regularly sampled radial velocity observations
- Improved signal detection algorithms for unevenly sampled data. Six signals in the radial velocity data for GJ876
- Searching for g modes: Part I. A new calibration of the GOLF instrument
- Discrete-time autoregressive model for unequally spaced time-series observations
- : Distinguishing Planet-induced Doppler Signatures from Granulation with a Synthetic Spectra Generator
- A Bootstrap Method for Sinusoid Detection in Colored Noise and Uneven Sampling. Application to Exoplanet Detection
- Using hydrodynamical simulations of stellar atmospheres for periodogram standardization : application to exoplanet detection
- Randomization Inference of Periodicity in Unequally Spaced Time Series with Application to Exoplanet Detection