Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development
arXiv:2206.08504 · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2023.114139
Abstract
This paper uses new and existing methods to study collective trends across countries throughout the pandemic, with a focus on the multivariate time series of reproduction numbers and vaccine proliferation. We begin with a time-varying analysis of the collective nature of infectivity, where we evaluate the eigenspectrum and collective magnitude of reproduction number time series on a country-by-country basis. Next, we study the topology of this eigenspectrum, measuring the deviation between all points in time, and introduce a graph-theoretic methodology to reveal a clear partition in global infectivity dynamics. Then, we compare countries' vaccine rollouts with economic indicators such as their GDP and HDI in a collective fashion. We investigate time-varying consistency and determine points in time where there is the greatest discrepancy between these indicators as a whole. Our two primary findings are a considerable increase in collective infectivity in the latter half of the period, and a concave-up (``down then up'') pattern in the collective consistency between vaccine coverage and economic/development indicators across countries.
Accepted manuscript. Moderate edits since v1. Equal contribution
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