Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model
arXiv:2004.07833 · doi:10.1016/j.physd.2020.132540 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132807
Abstract
An accurate closed-form solution is obtained to the SIR Epidemic Model through the use of Asymptotic Approximants (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48). The solution is created by analytically continuing the divergent power series solution such that it matches the long-time asymptotic behavior of the epidemic model. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Updates: Fixed a typo in previous version's equation 6c. Included link to Python code