Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework

Abstract

The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters characterizing the model. Using these results and having as guideline the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, we compare the efficiency of different containment strategies for contrasting an epidemic diffusion such as social distancing, lockdown, tracing, early detection and isolation.

16 pages in PhysRev format, 12 figures; some superposition with arXiv:2004.11633, in particular for the application part

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• Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
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• Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development
• The Role of Geographic Spreaders in Infectious Pattern Formation and Front Propagation Speeds
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• Series solution of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with vital dynamics via the Adomian and Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Methods
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