Detecting the periodicity of highly irregularly sampled light-curves with Gaussian processes: the case of SDSSJ025214.67-002813.7

Abstract

Based on a 20-year-long multiband observation of its light-curve, it was conjectured that the quasar SDSSJ025214.67-002813.7 has a periodicity of ~4.4 years. These observations were acquired at a highly irregular sampling rate and feature long intervals of missing data. In this setting, the inference over the light-curve's spectral content requires, in addition to classic Fourier methods, a proper model of the probability distribution of the missing observations. In this article, we address the detection of the periodicity of a light-curve from partial and irregularly-sampled observations using Gaussian processes, a Bayesian nonparametric model for time series. This methodology allows us to evaluate the veracity of the claimed periodicity of the abovementioned quasar and also to estimate its power spectral density. Our main contribution is the confirmation that considering periodic component definitely improves the modeling of the data, although being the source originally selected by a large sample of objects, the possibility that this is a chance result cannot be ruled out.

arXiv comment9 pages, 4 figures, MNRAS, in press

References in corpus (52)

• SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python
• Astropy: A Community Python Package for Astronomy
• emcee: The MCMC Hammer
• The Astropy Project: Building an inclusive, open-science project and status of the v2.0 core package
• The Large Area Telescope on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Mission
• Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians
• The generalised Lomb-Scargle periodogram. A new formalism for the floating-mean and Keplerian periodograms
• Understanding the Lomb-Scargle Periodogram
• The Palomar Transient Factory: System Overview, Performance and First Results
• The Dark Energy Survey: more than dark energy - an overview
• Fast and scalable Gaussian process modeling with applications to astronomical time series
• Applications of Bayesian model selection to cosmological parameters
• SDSS Standard Star Catalog for Stripe 82: the Dawn of Industrial 1% Optical Photometry
• Data analysis recipes: Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
• Dynamic temperature selection for parallel-tempering in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
• A systematic search for close supermassive black hole binaries in the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey
• False periodicities in quasar time-domain surveys
• Introduction to astroML: Machine Learning for Astrophysics
• Multiwavelength Evidence for Quasi-periodic Modulation in the Gamma-ray Blazar PG 1553+113
• Periodograms for Multiband Astronomical Time Series
• A Population of Short-Period Variable Quasars from PTF as Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidates
• Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy
• Inferring probabilistic stellar rotation periods using Gaussian processes
• A Bayesian test for periodic signals in red noise
• BGLS: A Bayesian formalism for the generalised Lomb-Scargle periodogram
• The Blazar PG 1553+113 as a Binary System of Supermassive Black Holes
• Gamma-ray quasi-periodicities of blazars. A cautious approach
• Candidate Periodically Variable Quasars from the Dark Energy Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
• Space-borne Gravitational Wave Observatories
• Pulsar Timing Constraints on the Fermi Massive Black-Hole Binary Blazar Population
• Looking at Blazar Light Curve Periodicities with Gaussian Processes
• Evaluating Quasi-Periodic Variations in the $\gamma$-ray Lightcurves of Fermi-LAT Blazars
• Gaussian Process Modeling $Fermi$-LAT $\gamma$-ray Blazar Variability: A Sample of Blazars with $\gamma$-ray Quasi-periodicities
• An Information Theoretic Algorithm for Finding Periodicities in Stellar Light Curves
• Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability
• Robust period estimation using mutual information for multi-band light curves in the synoptic survey era
• Low frequency X-ray timing with Gaussian processes and reverberation in the radio-loud AGN 3C 120
• A Quasi-periodic Oscillation in the gamma-ray Emission from the Non-blazar Active Galactic Nucleus PKS 0521-36
• The look-elsewhere effect from a unified Bayesian and frequentist perspective
• Is OJ 287 a Single Supermassive Black Hole?
• A Hybrid Algorithm for Period Analysis from Multi-band Data with Sparse and Irregular Sampling for Arbitrary Light Curve Shapes
• Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multi-Band Time Series Data
• Modelling the Multiwavelength Variability of Mrk 335 using Gaussian Processes
• Black hole science with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna
• Robust detection of quasi-periodic variability: A HAWKI mini survey of late T dwarfs
• When tension is just a fluctuation: How noisy data affect model comparison
• Modeling the Variability of Active Galactic Nuclei by Infinite Mixture of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(OU) Processes
• A Multiband Generalization of the Analysis of Variance Period Estimation Algorithm and the Effect of Inter-band Observing Cadence on Period Recovery Rate
• Detection of periodic signals in AGN red noise light curves: empirical tests on the Auto-Correlation Function and Phase Dispersion Minimization
• Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameter extraction from light curves of Fermi-LAT observed blazars
• Fitting very flexible models: Linear regression with large numbers of parameters
• Novel bivariate autoregressive model for predicting and forecasting irregularly observed time series

Cited by in corpus (8)

• Gaussian Process Modeling Blazar Multiwavelength Variability: Indirectly Resolving Jet Structure
• Searching for quasi-periodic oscillations in astrophysical transients using Gaussian processes
• Discovering the Mass-Scaled Damping Timescale from Microquasars to Blazars
• Polarization Studies in Different Blazar Types. Part I: Correlation between Optical Brightness and Polarization Degree
• Searching for unresolved massive black hole pairs through AGN photometric variability
• Information-based Preprocessing of PLC Data for Automatic Behavior Modeling
• New Metrics for Identifying Variables and Transients in Large Astronomical Surveys
• The possible long-term periodic variability of the extremely luminous quasar WISE J090924.01+000211.1