paper

Predictability: Can the turning point and end of an expanding epidemic be precisely forecast?

arXiv:2004.08842 · doi:10.1073/pnas.2007868117

Abstract

No, they can't. Epidemic spread is characterized by exponentially growing dynamics, which are intrinsically unpredictable. The time at which the growth in the number of infected individuals halts and starts decreasing cannot be calculated with certainty before the turning point is actually attained; neither can the end of the epidemic after the turning point. An SIR model with confinement (SCIR) illustrates how lockdown measures inhibit infection spread only above a threshold that we calculate. The existence of that threshold has major effects in predictability: A Bayesian fit to the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain shows that a slow-down in the number of newly infected individuals during the expansion phase allows to infer neither the precise position of the maximum nor whether the measures taken will bring the propagation to the inhibition regime. There is a short horizon for reliable prediction, followed by a dispersion of the possible trajectories that grows extremely fast. The impossibility to predict in the mid-term is not due to wrong or incomplete data, since it persists in error-free, synthetically produced data sets, and does not necessarily improve by using larger data sets. Our study warns against precise forecasts of the evolution of epidemics based on mean-field, effective or phenomenological models, and supports that only probabilities of different outcomes can be confidently given.

13 pages, 4 figure + Supplementary Information

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