Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China
arXiv:2002.07572 · doi:10.1126/science.abb4557
Abstract
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China is characterized by a distinctive algebraic, sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak with sufficiently large reproduction rate. Although case counts vary significantly between affected provinces in Mainland China, the scaling law is surprisingly universal, with a range of exponents . The universality of this behavior indicates that despite social, regional, demographical, geographical, and socio-economical heterogeneities of affected Chinese provinces, this outbreak is dominated by fundamental mechanisms that are not captured by standard epidemiological models. We show that the observed scaling law is a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as population wide isolation in response to mitigation policies or behavioral changes. For a wide range of parameters, the model reproduces the observed scaling law in confirmed cases and explains the observed exponents. Quantitative fits to empirical data permit the identification of peak times in the number of asymptomatic or oligo-symptomatic, unidentified infected individuals, as well as estimates of local variations in the basic reproduction number. The model implies that the observed scaling law in confirmed cases is a direct signature of effective contaiment strategies and/or systematic behavioral changes that affect a substantial fraction of the susceptible population. These insights may aid the implementation of containment strategies in potential export induced COVID-19 secondary outbreaks elsewhere or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.
9 pages, 3 figures
References in corpus (2)
Cited by in corpus (90)
- Inferring change points in the COVID-19 spreading reveals the effectiveness of interventions
- Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics with a Case Study of Wuhan
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review
- COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks
- Percolation on complex networks: Theory and application
- Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak: comparing the dynamics in the 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world
- Impacts of Social Distancing Policies on Mobility and COVID-19 Case Growth in the US
- Mobile phone location data reveal the effect and geographic variation of social distancing on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic
- Predictability: Can the turning point and end of an expanding epidemic be precisely forecast?
- Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak
- City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil
- Understanding the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Transportation-related Behaviors with Human Mobility Data
- Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers underlying epidemiological processes: a new statistical tool for the COVID-19 pandemic
- Logistic equation and COVID-19
- Power-law distribution in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases
- Spatio-temporal propagation of COVID-19 pandemics
- Covid-19 spread: Reproduction of data and prediction using a SIR model on Euclidean network
- Perspectives on adaptive dynamical systems
- Space-time dependence of corona virus (COVID-19) outbreak
- Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading
- COVID-19 in Africa -- outbreak despite interventions?
- Epidemic spreading under mutually independent intra- and inter-host pathogen evolution
- Dynamics, behaviours, and anomaly persistence in cryptocurrencies and equities surrounding COVID-19
- Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Control of Dynamics on Graphs
- A New Compartmental Epidemiological Model for COVID-19 with a Case Study of Portugal
- Lessons from being challenged by COVID-19
- Effects of demographic and weather parameters on COVID-19 basic reproduction number
- Hamiltonian structure of compartmental epidemiological models
- SUIHTER: A new mathematical model for COVID-19. Application to the analysis of the second epidemic outbreak in Italy
- A random walk Monte Carlo simulation study of COVID-19-like infection spread
- Scaling features in the spreading of COVID-19
- COVID-19 policy analysis: labour structure dictates lockdown mobility behaviour
- PM as a major predictor of COVID-19 basic reproduction number in the USA
- How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
- A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fatality data
- Quantifying the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Mainland China Using Human Mobility Data
- Using posterior predictive distributions to analyse epidemic models: COVID-19 in Mexico City
- Comprehensive Investigation and Isolation have Effectively Suppressed the Spread of COVID-19
- Bi-stability of SUDR+K model of epidemics and test kits applied to COVID-19
- Transportation Density Reduction Caused by City Lockdowns Across the World during the COVID-19 Epidemic: From the View of High-resolution Remote Sensing Imagery
- Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic
- Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach
- Quickest Detection of COVID-19 Pandemic Onset
- Quickest Detection and Forecast of Pandemic Outbreaks: Analysis of COVID-19 Waves
- Epidemics with containment measures
- How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19?
- Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
- Contact network models matching the dynamics of the COVID-19 spreading
- Infection percolation: A dynamic network model of disease spreading
- Collective response to the media coverage of COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia
- Inferring Spatial Source of Disease Outbreaks using Maximum Entropy
- Twitter, human mobility, and COVID-19
- Containing a pandemic: Nonpharmaceutical interventions and the "second wave"
- Temporal and spatial evolution of the distribution related to the number of COVID-19 pandemic
- Epidemic spreading under game-based self-quarantine behaviors: The different effects of local and global information
- Decision Support for the Quickest Detection of Critical COVID-19 Phases
- Some Challenges in Monitoring Epidemics
- Heavy-tailed distributions of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in spatiotemporal space
- Exponential rate of epidemic spreading on complex networks
- Social adaptive behavior and oscillatory prevalence in an epidemic model on evolving random geometric graphs
- Rebound in epidemic control: How misaligned vaccination timing amplifies infection peaks
- Endemic infectious states below the epidemic threshold and beyond herd immunity
- Scheduling fixed length quarantines to minimize the total number of fatalities during an epidemic
- Prospective Prediction of Future SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Empirical Data on a National Level to Gauge Response Effectiveness
- What is the potential for a second peak in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in emerging and developing economies? Insights from a SIRASD model considering the informal economy
- Machine learning spatio-temporal epidemiological model to evaluate Germany-county-level COVID-19 risk
- Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
- The Number of Confirmed Cases of Covid-19 by using Machine Learning: Methods and Challenges
- Dose-response functions and surrogate models for exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study
- Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19
- Path-dependent course of epidemic: are two phases of quarantine better than one?
- Series solution of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with vital dynamics via the Adomian and Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Methods
- Identifying influential subpopulations in metapopulation epidemic models using message-passing theory
- Critical time-dependent branching process modelling epidemic spreading with containment measures
- An Investigation of Containment Measures Against the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mainland China
- A parsimonious model for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation
- Visual explanation of country specific differences in Covid-19 dynamics
- Spreader events and the limitations of projected networks for capturing dynamics on multipartite networks
- Exact closed-form solution of a modified SIR model
- Herd Immunity with Spatial Adaptation Based on Global Prevalence Information
- Generalized k-Means in GLMs with Applications to the Outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States
- Data-driven approach in a compartmental epidemic model to assess undocumented infections
- Disruption in the Chinese E-Commerce During COVID-19
- Subexponential growth of early Christianity
- Identify Hidden Spreaders of Pandemic over Contact Tracing Networks
- Quadratic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic: merging hotspots and reinfections
- Policy-Aware Mobility Model Explains the Growth of COVID-19 in Cities
- Universal behavior of the Covid-19 tails: Inverse power-law distribution
- A hospital demand and capacity intervention approach for COVID-19 in the UK
- Geometric characterization of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic events