Containing a pandemic: Nonpharmaceutical interventions and the "second wave"

Abstract

In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment strategies is required to avoid exceeding social and economical costs as well as a dangerous "second wave" of the pandemic. In this work, we combine a recently developed dynamical density functional theory model and an extended SIRD model with hysteresis to study effects of various measures and strategies using realistic parameters. Depending on intervention thresholds, a variety of phases with different numbers of shutdowns and deaths are found. Spatiotemporal simulations provide further insights into the dynamics of a second wave. Our results are of crucial importance for public health policy.

20 pages, 4 figures

References in corpus (3)

• Classical dynamical density functional theory: from fundamentals to applications
• Controlling the microstructure and phase behavior of confined soft colloids by active interaction switching
• Dynamics of SIR model with vaccination and heterogeneous behavioral response of individuals modeled by the Preisach operator

Cited by in corpus (5)

• Perspective: New directions in dynamical density functional theory
• Active interaction switching controls the dynamic heterogeneity of soft colloidal dispersions
• Derivation and analysis of a phase field crystal model for a mixture of active and passive particles
• Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19
• A Constrained Optimisation Framework for Parameter Identification of the SIRD Model