Likelihood Analysis of the Sub-GUT MSSM in Light of LHC 13-TeV Data

Abstract

We describe a likelihood analysis using MasterCode of variants of the MSSM in which the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to have universal values at some scale $M_{in}$ below the supersymmetric grand unification scale $M_{GUT}$, as can occur in mirage mediation and other models. In addition to $M_{in}$, such `sub-GUT' models have the 4 parameters of the CMSSM, namely a common gaugino mass $m_{1/2}$, a common soft supersymmetry-breaking scalar mass $m_0$, a common trilinear mixing parameter $A$ and the ratio of MSSM Higgs vevs $\tan \beta$, assuming that the Higgs mixing parameter $\mu >0$. We take into account constraints on strongly- and electroweakly-interacting sparticles from $\sim 36$/fb of LHC data at 13 TeV and the LUX and 2017 PICO, XENON1T and PandaX-II searches for dark matter scattering, in addition to the previous LHC and dark matter constraints as well as full sets of flavour and electroweak constraints. We find a preference for $M_{in}\sim 10^5$ to $10^9$ GeV, with $M_{in}\sim M_{GUT}$ disfavoured by $\Delta {\chi }^2\sim 3$ due to the $\mathrm{BR}(B_{s,d}\to {\mu }^{+}{\mu }^{-})$ constraint. The lower limits on strongly-interacting sparticles are largely determined by LHC searches, and similar to those in the CMSSM. We find a preference for the LSP to be a Bino or Higgsino with $\widetilde{{\chi }_1^0}\sim 1$ TeV, with annihilation via heavy Higgs bosons $H/A$ and stop coannihilation, or chargino coannihilation, bringing the cold dark matter density into the cosmological range. We find that spin-independent dark matter scattering is likely to be within reach of the planned LUX-Zeplin and XENONnT experiments. We probe the impact of the $(g-2{)}_{\mu }$ constraint, finding similar results whether or not it is included.

arXiv comment30 pages, 15 figures, 42 plots, 4 tables. Exploratory study considering μ< 0

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