Resilience management during large-scale epidemic outbreaks

Abstract

Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service disruption, as well as the recovery speed, are just a few of the many dimensions along which to quantify the effect of an epidemic on society's fabric. Here, we extend the concept of resilience to characterize epidemics in structured populations, by defining the system-wide critical functionality that combines an individual's risk of getting the disease (disease attack rate) and the disruption to the system's functionality (human mobility deterioration). By studying both conceptual and data-driven models, we show that the integrated consideration of individual risks and societal disruptions under resilience assessment framework provides an insightful picture of how an epidemic might impact society. In particular, containment interventions intended for a straightforward reduction of the risk may have net negative impact on the system by slowing down the recovery of basic societal functions. The presented study operationalizes the resilience framework, providing a more nuanced and comprehensive approach for optimizing containment schemes and mitigation policies in the case of epidemic outbreaks.

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Cited by in corpus (8)

• Infrastructure Resilience Curves: Performance Measures and Summary Metrics
• Accuracy of a one-dimensional reduction of dynamical systems on networks
• Intervention Threshold for Epidemic Control in Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Metapopulation Models
• Understanding the temporal pattern of spreading in heterogeneous networks: Theory of the mean infection time
• Cyber Resilience in IoT network: Methodology and example of assessment through epidemic spreading
• Preserving system activity while controlling epidemic spreading in adaptive temporal networks
• Higher-order adaptive behaviors outperform pairwise strategies in mitigating contagion dynamics
• Dimensional Reduction of Solvency Contagion Dynamics on Financial Networks