Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks

Abstract

We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity pattern. In SIR-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global invasion threshold. We provide an explicit expression of the threshold that sets a critical value of the diffusion/mobility rate below which the epidemic is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of subpopulations. The invasion threshold is found to be affected by the topological fluctuations of the metapopulation network. The presented results provide a general framework for the understanding of the effect of travel restrictions in epidemic containment.

4 pages, 2 figures

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• Prediction and predictability of global epidemics: the role of the airline transportation network
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• Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

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