Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

Abstract

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns --such as workplaces, university campuses or schools-- it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of SIS-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

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Cited by in corpus (13)

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• Impact of temporal scales and recurrent mobility patterns on the unfolding of epidemics
• Epidemic Dynamics in Homes and Destinations under Recurrent Mobility Patterns
• Markovian approach to tackle the interaction of simultaneous diseases
• Random walks in time-varying networks with memory
• Intervention Threshold for Epidemic Control in Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Metapopulation Models
• Epidemic spreading in group-structured populations
• Exponential rate of epidemic spreading on complex networks
• Epidemic dynamics on metapopulation networks with node2vec mobility
• Metapopulation models imply non-Poissonian statistics of interevent times
• Contagion-diffusion processes with recurrent mobility patterns of distinguishable agents
• $({\omega }_1,{\omega }_2)$-temporal random hyperbolic graphs
• Scaling law of individual urban tour behavior