Using ForeCAT Deflections and Rotations to Constrain the Early Evolution of CMEs

Abstract

To accurately predict the space weather effects of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth, and the CME parameters upon impact. Kay et al. (2015b) presents Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts, and the CME orientation upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2008 April 10 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34 degrees deflection and 58 degrees rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (<3 degrees each). Using ForeCAT, we explore a range of initial parameters, such as the CME location and size, and find parameters that can successfully reproduce the behavior for each CME. Additionally, since the deflection depends strongly on the behavior of a CME in the low corona (Kay et al. (2015a, 2015b)), we are able to constrain the expansion and propagation of these CMEs in the low corona.

accepted in ApJ

References in corpus (10)

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• Constraining the Mass and the Non-Radial Drag Coefficient of a Solar Coronal Mass Ejection

Cited by in corpus (13)

• Observation-based modelling of magnetised Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA
• Determining the Intrinsic CME Flux Rope Type Using Remote-sensing Solar Disk Observations
• Forward modeling of coronal mass ejection flux ropes in the inner heliosphere with 3DCORE
• Coronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In situ Comparison
• The Influence of Coronal Mass Ejections on the Mass-loss Rates of Hot-Jupiters
• Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158
• Modeling a Carrington-scale Stellar Superflare and Coronal Mass Ejection from ${\kappa }^{1}Cet$
• Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles
• Modeling the Early Evolution of a Slow Coronal Mass Ejection Imaged by the Parker Solar Probe
• Multipoint study of successive coronal mass ejections driving moderate disturbances at 1 AU
• Synthetic Remote-sensing and In-situ Observations of Fine-scale Structure in a Pseudostreamer Coronal Mass Ejection through the Solar Corona
• Coronal dimmings as indicators of early CME propagation direction
• Three-part structure of solar coronal mass ejection observed in low coronal signatures of Solar Orbiter