Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

Abstract

The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium known as Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as 17 115-year long oscillations found in temperature reconstructions during the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Prolonged solar minima in 1900-1920 and 1960-1980, the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005, and a secular upward trending during the 20th century is recovered: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar grand minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. The critique by Smythe and Eddy (1977) is rebutted.

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2012)

References in corpus (8)

• A new approach to long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing
• Cosmic Rays and Climate
• Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications
• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
• Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change
• A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature
• Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models
• Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data

Cited by in corpus (29)

• Impacts and risks of "realistic" global warming projections for the 21st century
• Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation
• High-frequency cyclicity in the Mediterranean Messinian evaporites: evidence for solar-lunar climate forcing
• On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene
• Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles
• Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes
• How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate
• ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models
• Empirical evidences for a planetary modulation of total solar irradiance and the TSI signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle
• The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system
• Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs
• Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques
• Planetary harmonics in the historical Hungarian aurora record (1523-1960)
• Quantifying the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations
• On planetary torque signals and sub-decadal frequencies in the discharges of large rivers
• The planetary theory of solar activity variability: a review
• The Mid-term and Long-term Solar Quasi-periodic Cycles and the Possible Relationship with Planetary Motions
• Phase coherence and phase jumps in the Schwabe cycle
• Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)
• On the alleged coherence between the global temperature and the sun's movement
• Comment on "The influence of planetary attractions on the solar tachocline" by Callebaut, de Jager and Duhau
• The 11-years solar cycle as the manifestation of the dark Universe
• Multi-scale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its non-linear dependence on the 11-year solar cycle
• The Little Ice Age was 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO
• Detection, attribution, and modeling of climate change: key open issues
• On the annual and semi-annual components of variations in extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice
• A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity
• Thermomagnetic Ettingshausen-Nernst effect in tachocline, magnetic reconnection phenomenon in lower layers, axion mechanism of solar luminosity variations, coronal heating problem solution and mechanism of ADM variations around BH
• Reply to Hunter and Brown Discussion of Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?, Coastal Engineering 2012;64:161-167, Coastal Engineering 2013;75:1-3