A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity
arXiv:1702.00641 · doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.06.010
Abstract
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the relative ecliptic motion of the planets Jupiter and Saturn, and its synergy with a quasi-periodic component of solar activity. Using as input the temporal distribution of flares during cycle 21, the general evolution of cycles 22-24 is reproduced in notable agreement with the observations, including the resurgence of activity in the last months of 2017, and further predictions are provided for cycle 25. This deterministic description could contribute to elucidating the responsible physical mechanisms and forecasting space weather.
arXiv comment15 pages, 6 figures. Update [v3]: Concise version for publication; updated fitting of data and timing scheme (small quantitative changes in results). Update [v2]: Inclusion of X-class flares (no incurred change in results); simplification of the timing scheme (slight change in predictions, simplified systematics); revisited systematic uncertainties; rephrasing for clarity. 2017 events added
References in corpus (5)
- The Solar Cycle
- Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
- Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation
- Theories of the solar cycle : a critical view
- Are Uranus & Neptune responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation?