264 citations · 904 across the 34 of their papers we have counts for
39 papers
Dynamic factor and double PCA models for partially observed survival curves: Forecasting demand in short-term rental markets
Marthe Elisabeth Aastveit, Alex Lenkoski, Thordis Thorarinsdottir
This paper develops prediction models for population-level survival curves observed over time and sampled from a heterogeneous mix of populations. We consider a discrete-time setti…
Short-term rental market occupancy - daily time series for 2017-2022 on 500 markets worldwide
Marthe Elisabeth Aastveit, Andreas Buschermöhle, Alex Lenkoski +1
Short-term vacation rentals, as promoted by platforms such as Airbnb, Homeaway, Vrbo, etc., are a growing component of the travel industry. This paper provides a unique, large data…
Flood risk estimation via geometric extremal graphical models
Kristina Grolmusova, Jennifer L. Wadsworth, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
We exploit the new framework of multivariate geometric extreme value theory for the statistical analysis of river flow extremes at multiple locations on a river network. Current me…
A spatial duration-augmented framework for drought persistence
Touqeer Ahmad, Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir
Drought monitoring across heterogeneous climate regions requires explicit modeling of drought persistence rather than relying solely on index classification. We develop a Bayesian…
Simulation and evaluation of local daily temperature and precipitation series derived by stochastic downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis
Silius M. Vandeskog, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Alex Lenkoski
Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage,…
Applications of machine learning to predict seasonal precipitation for East Africa
Michael Scheuerer, Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Titike K. Bahaga +2
Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, oc…
What you see is not what is there: Mechanisms, models, and methods for point pattern deviations
Peter Guttorp, Janine Illian, Joel Kostensalo +4
Many natural systems are observed as point patterns in time, space, or space and time. Examples include plant and cellular systems, animal colonies, earthquakes, and wildfires. In…
Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods
Thea Roksvåg, Alex Lenkoski, Michael Scheuerer +2
Agricultural food production and natural ecological systems depend on a range of seasonal climate indicators that describe seasonal patterns in climatological conditions. This pape…
Assessing present and future risk of water damage using building attributes, meteorology and topography
Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Jens Christian Wahl, Alba Ordonez +4
Weather-related risk makes the insurance industry inevitably concerned with climate and climate change. Buildings hit by pluvial flooding is a key manifestation of this risk, givin…
Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules
Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp +1
We introduce a class of proper scoring rules for evaluating spatial point process forecasts based on summary statistics. These scoring rules rely on Monte-Carlo approximations of e…
Quantile based modelling of diurnal temperature range with the five-parameter lambda distribution
Silius M. Vandeskog, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Ingelin Steinsland +1
Diurnal temperature range is an important variable in climate science that can provide information regarding climate variability and climate change. Changes in diurnal temperature…
Forecasting: theory and practice
Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos +77
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organ…
Non-stationarity in Esbjerg sea-level returnlevels: Applications in climate change adaptation
Peter Thejll, Peter Guttorp, Martin Drews +4
Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce proj…
Rapid adjustment and post-processing of temperature forecast trajectories
Nina Schuhen, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Alex Lenkoski
Modern weather forecasts are commonly issued as consistent multi-day forecast trajectories with a time resolution of 1-3 hours. Prior to issuing, statistical post-processing is rou…
Multivariate postprocessing methods for high-dimensional seasonal weather forecasts
Claudio Heinrich, Kristoffer H. Hellton, Alex Lenkoski +1
Seasonal weather forecasts are crucial for long-term planning in many practical situations and skillful forecasts may have substantial economic and humanitarian implications. Curre…
New approach for stochastic downscaling and bias correction of daily mean temperatures to a high-resolution grid
Qifen Yuan, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Stein Beldring +3
In applications of climate information, coarse-resolution climate projections commonly need to be downscaled to a finer grid. One challenge of this requirement is the modeling of s…
Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production - Part 2: Photovoltaic Solar
Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Anders Løland, Alex Lenkoski
We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregated solar photovoltaic (PV) power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using…
Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production - Part 1: Wind
Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Anders Løland, Alex Lenkoski
Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable…
Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales
Ola Haug, Thordis L Thorarinsdottir, Sigrunn H Sørbye +1
Classical assessments of trends in gridded temperature data perform independent evaluations across the grid, thus, ignoring spatial correlations in the trend estimates. In particul…
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling
Martin Jullum, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Fabian E. Bachl
The Greenland Sea is an important breeding ground for harp and hooded seals. Estimates of the annual seal pup production are critical factors in the abundance estimation needed for…
Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for large catchments
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Kristoffer H. Hellton, Gunnhildur H. Steinbakk +2
Regional flood frequency analysis is commonly applied in situations where there exists insufficient data at a location for a reliable estimation of flood quantiles. We develop a Ba…
Evaluation of time series models under non-stationarity with application to the comparison of regional climate models
T. M. Erhardt, C. Czado, T. L. Thorarinsdottir
Different disciplines pursue the aim to develop models which characterize certain phenomena as accurately as possible. Climatology is a prime example, where the temporal evolution…
Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output
Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir +1
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct…
Forecaster's Dilemma: Extreme Events and Forecast Evaluation
Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Francesco Ravazzolo +1
In public discussions of the quality of forecasts, attention typically focuses on the predictive performance in cases of extreme events. However, the restriction of conventional fo…