196 citations · 202 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for
Showing 2020 · physics.soc-phShow all
2 papers · 2 filters
physics.soc-ph2020
On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Pasquale Cirillo
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-…
physics.soc-ph2020★ 196 cited
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
Pasquale Cirillo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-…