196 citations · 508 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Forecasting: theory and practice
Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos +77
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organ…
On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Pasquale Cirillo
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-…
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
Pasquale Cirillo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-…