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ECHO: Correcting Time Series Foundation Model Forecasts with Historical Analogues and Errors
Boya Zhang, Xilin Dai, Yilin Wang +4
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) provide general-purpose forecasting capabilities, yet their forecasts can remain misaligned with the temporal characteristics of a target doma…
A Unified Scaling Law for Time Series Foundation Models
Xilin Dai, Yiding Liu, Zewei Dong +2
We develop a Unified Scaling Law and a Unified Theory of Time Series Learning to understand how model capacity and historical information support forecasting. Across different look…
When Tomorrow Becomes Today: Self-Evolving Policies for Agentic Time-Series Forecasting
Yifan Hu, Xilin Dai, Zhiyuan Qu +4
Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention r…
Learning the Context of Errors: Black-Box Online Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models
Xilin Dai, Yiding Liu, Hongjie Xia +4
The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, futur…
Fidel-TS: A High-Fidelity Multimodal Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting
Zhijian Xu, Wanxu Cai, Xilin Dai +2
The evaluation of time series forecasting models is hindered by a lack of high-quality benchmarks, leading to overestimated assessments of progress. Existing datasets suffer from i…
From Samples to Scenarios: A New Paradigm for Probabilistic Forecasting
Xilin Dai, Zhijian Xu, Wanxu Cai +1
Most state-of-the-art probabilistic time series forecasting models rely on sampling to represent future uncertainty. However, this paradigm suffers from inherent limitations, such…