23 citations · 51 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers · 1 filter
Finite-Horizon Triggering Cores of Earthquake Sequences
Didier Sornette, Giuseppe Petrillo
Models of triggered seismicity commonly aggregate the contributions of all past earthquakes into a total predicted rate. This aggregation does not distinguish a forecast dominated…
How to quantify earthquake predictability? Advances in earthquake forecasting and predictability limits
Jiancang Zhuang, Didier Sornette
Earthquakes resist deterministic prediction, yet their occurrence is not fully random. This paper develops a unified information-theoretic framework to quantify predictability. By…
Non-normal amplification in multitype Hawkes-ETAS models of earthquake triggering
Didier Sornette
Earthquake triggering is conventionally characterised by a scalar ETAS branching ratio. We develop a three-type Hawkes-ETAS model that resolves strike-slip, normal, and reverse/thr…
Haicheng and Tangshan Earthquakes as potential Dragon-Kings
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette
The dragon-king earthquake hypothesis proposes that some very large to great earthquakes are not merely the extreme end of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter distribution (F…
Estimating Magnitude Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: A Comparative Study of Catalog-based Methods
Xinyi Wang, Jiawei Li, Ao Feng +1
Without rigorous attention to the completeness of earthquake catalogs, claims of new discoveries or forecasting skills cannot be deemed credible. Therefore, estimating the complete…
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Geophysical Insights for Earthquake Forecasting: A Cross-Disciplinary Review
Zhang Ying, Wen Congcong, Sornette Didier +1
Earthquake forecasting remains a significant scientific challenge, with current methods falling short of achieving the performance necessary for meaningful societal benefits. Tradi…
New horizon in the statistical physics of earthquakes: Dragon-king theory and dragon-king earthquakes
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette, Zhongliang Wu +1
A systematic quantitative investigation into whether the mechanisms of large earthquakes are unique could significantly deepen our understanding of fault rupture and seismicity pat…
Revisiting Seismicity Criticality: A New Framework for Bias Correction of Statistical Seismology Model Calibrations
Jiawei Li, Didier Sornette, Zhongliang Wu +2
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. A…
Predicting the Future Performance of the Planned Seismic Network in Mainland China
Jiawei Li, Arnaud Mignan, Didier Sornette +1
The new broadband seismic network in China will increase the number of stations from approximately 950 to 2000. The higher-resolution monitoring of the frequent smaller earthquakes…