5 citations · 12 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers
Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy
Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…
Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…
The Loser's Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlle…
Moving from Machine Learning to Statistics: the case of Expected Points in American football
Ryan S. Brill, Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande +1
Expected points is a value function fundamental to player evaluation and strategic in-game decision-making across sports analytics, particularly in American football. To estimate e…
Exploring the Difficulty of Estimating Win Probability: A Simulation Study
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship betwee…
Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates a…
Entropy-Based Strategies for Multi-Bracket Pools
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner, Ian J. Barnett
Much work in the parimutuel betting literature has discussed estimating event outcome probabilities or developing optimal wagering strategies, particularly for horse race betting.…
A Bayesian analysis of the time through the order penalty in baseball
Ryan S. Brill, Sameer K. Deshpande, Abraham J. Wyner
As a baseball game progresses, batters appear to perform better the more times they face a particular pitcher. The apparent drop-off in pitcher performance from one time through th…
Introducing Grid WAR: Rethinking WAR for Starting Pitchers
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
The baseball statistic "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) has emerged as one of the most popular evaluation metrics. But it is not readily observed and tabulated; WAR is an estimate of…