5 citations · 12 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers · 1 filter
Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy
Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…
Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…
The Loser's Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlle…
Moving from Machine Learning to Statistics: the case of Expected Points in American football
Ryan S. Brill, Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande +1
Expected points is a value function fundamental to player evaluation and strategic in-game decision-making across sports analytics, particularly in American football. To estimate e…
Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates a…
A Bayesian analysis of the time through the order penalty in baseball
Ryan S. Brill, Sameer K. Deshpande, Abraham J. Wyner
As a baseball game progresses, batters appear to perform better the more times they face a particular pitcher. The apparent drop-off in pitcher performance from one time through th…