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math.DS2026
From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events
Franco Du Plessis, Victoria Volodina, Chris A. Boulton +5
In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear syst…
math.DS2026
Early warnings of critical transitions through vector autoregression: lessons from multiscale systems
Bryony Hobden, Paul Ritchie, Peter Ashwin
In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to…