10 papers
Charged Deformation of a Hairy Black Brane: Perturbative Solution and Thermodynamics
Sangheon Yun
We study electrically charged black branes in four-dimensional Einstein-Maxwell-scalar theory with Maxwell coupling , whose potential has an AdS fixed point…
From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events
Franco Du Plessis, Victoria Volodina, Chris A. Boulton +5
In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear syst…
Variability in a Model of Divergent and Convergent Coupled Ice Streams: Synchronisation, Transients and Chaos
Joshua Grimstead, Peter Ashwin, Tanja I. Schindler
Fast-flowing glaciers, known as ice streams, control the majority of ice sheet mass loss due to thermomechanical coupling at their base, which can induce basal lubrication and high…
Early warnings of critical transitions through vector autoregression: lessons from multiscale systems
Bryony Hobden, Paul Ritchie, Peter Ashwin
In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to…
Chaotic variability in a model of coupled ice streams
Kolja Kypke, Peter Ashwin, Peter Ditlevsen
Regions of fast-flowing ice in ice sheets, known as ice streams, have been theorized to be able to exhibit build-up/surge oscillatory variability due to thermomechanical coupling a…
Attracting measures
Julian Newman, Peter Ashwin
Under mild assumptions, the SRB measure associated to an Axiom A attractor has the following properties: (i) the empirical measure starting at a typical point near conv…
The effect of timescale separation on the tipping window for chaotically forced systems
Raphael Römer, Peter Ashwin
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise driv…
Deep Learning for predicting rate-induced tipping
Yu Huang, Sebastian Bathiany, Peter Ashwin +1
Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slo…
Contrasting chaotic and stochastic forcing: tipping windows and attractor crises
Peter Ashwin, Julian Newman, Raphael Römer
Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dyn…
Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems
Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers, Peter Ashwin
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation becaus…